Sparse Spectral Bayesian Permanental Process with Generalized Kernel

We introduce a novel scheme for Bayesian inference on permanental processes which models the Poisson intensity as the square of a Gaussian process. Combining generalized kernels and a Fourier features-based representation of the Gaussian process with a Laplace approximation to the posterior, we achieve a fast and efficient inference that does not require numerical integration over the input space, allows kernel design and scales linearly with the number of events. Our method builds and improves upon the state-of-the-art Laplace Bayesian point process benchmark of Walder and Bishop (2017), demonstrated on both synthetic, real-world temporal and large spatial data sets

Bayesian online change point detection with Hilbert space approximate Student-t process

In this paper, we introduce a variant of Bayesian online change point detection with a reduced-rank Student-t process (TP) and dependent Student-t noise, as a nonparametric time series model. Our method builds and improves upon the state-of-the-art Gaussian process (GP) change point model benchmark of Saatçi et al. (2010). The Student-t process generalizes the concept of a GP and hence yields a more flexible alternative. Additionally, unlike a GP, the predictive variance explicitly depends on the training observations, while the use of an entangled Student-t noise model preserves analytical tractability. Our approach also uses a Hilbert space reduced-rank representation of the TP kernel, derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Laplace operator (Solin & Särkkä, 2020), to alleviate its computational complexity. Improvements in prediction and training time are demonstrated with real-world data sets

Entropy-based adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. A leapfrog integrator is commonly used to implement HMC in practice, but its performance can be sensitive to the choice of mass matrix used therein. We develop a gradient-based algorithm that allows for the adaptation of the mass matrix by encouraging the leapfrog integrator to have high acceptance rates while also exploring all dimensions jointly. In contrast to previous work that adapt the hyperparameters of HMC using some form of expected squared jumping distance, the adaptation strategy suggested here aims to increase sampling efficiency by maximizing an approximation of the proposal entropy. We illustrate that using multiple gradients in the HMC proposal can be beneficial compared to a single gradient-step in Metropolis-adjusted Langevin proposals. Empirical evidence suggests that the adaptation method can outperform different versions of HMC schemes by adjusting the mass matrix to the geometry of the target distribution and by providing some control on the integration time

Doubly-online changepoint detection for monitoring health status during sports activities

We provide an online framework for analyzing data recorded by smart watches during running activities. In particular, we focus on identifying variations in the behavior of one or more measurements caused by changes in physical condition, such as physical discomfort, periods of prolonged de-training, or even the malfunction of measuring devices. Our framework considers data as a sequence of running activities represented by multivariate time series of physical and biometric data. We combine classical changepoint detection models with an unknown number of components with Gaussian state space models to detect distributional changes between a sequence of activities. The model considers multiple sources of dependence due to the sequential nature of subsequent activities, the autocorrelation structure within each activity, and the contemporaneous dependence between different vari-ables. We provide an online expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm involving a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of changepoint pre-dicted probabilities. As a byproduct of our model assumptions, our proposed approach processes sequences of multivariate time series in a doubly-online framework. While classical changepoint models detect changes between subsequent activities, the state space framework, coupled with the online EM algorithm, provides the additional benefit of estimating the real-time probability that a current activity is a changepoint

Scalable Gaussian Processes, with Guarantees: Kernel Approximations and Deep Feature Extraction

We provide approximation guarantees for a linear-time inferential framework for Gaussian processes, using two low-rank kernel approximations based on random Fourier features and truncation of Mercer expansions. In particular, we bound the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the idealized Gaussian process and the one resulting from a low-rank approximation to its kernel. Additionally, we present strong evidence that these two approximations, enhanced by an initial automatic feature extraction through deep neural networks, outperform a broad range of state-of-the-art methods in terms of time efficiency, negative log-predictive density, and root mean squared error

Gradient-based adaptive HMC

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. A leapfrog integrator is commonly used to implement HMC in practice, but its performance can be sensitive to the choice of mass matrix used therein. We develop a gradient-based algorithm that allows for the adaptation of the mass matrix by encouraging the leapfrog integrator to have high acceptance rates while also exploring all dimensions jointly. In contrast to previous work that adapt the hyperparameters of HMC using some form of expected squared jumping distance, the adaptation strategy suggested here aims to increase sampling efficiency by maximizing an approximation of the proposal entropy. We illustrate that using multiple gradients in the HMC proposal can be beneficial compared to a single gradientstep in Metropolis-adjusted Langevin proposals. Empirical evidence suggests that the adaptation method can outperform different versions of HMC schemes by adjusting the mass matrix to the geometry of the target distribution and by providing some control on the integration time

How Good are Low-Rank Approximations in Gaussian Process Regression?

We provide guarantees for approximate Gaussian Process (GP) regression resulting from two common low-rank kernel approximations: based on random Fourier features, and based on truncating the kernel's Mercer expansion. In particular, we bound the Kullback–Leibler divergence between an exact GP and one resulting from one of the afore-described low-rank approximations to its kernel, as well as between their corresponding predictive densities, and we also bound the error between predictive mean vectors and between predictive covariance matrices computed using the exact versus using the approximate GP. We provide experiments on both simulated data and standard benchmarks to evaluate the effectiveness of our theoretical bounds

Bayesian forecasting of mortality rates by using latent Gaussian models

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled through a Gaussian Markov random field. We use efficient Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters and the latent states of the proposed models. Both methodologies are tested with past data and are used to forecast mortality rates both for large (UK and Wales) and small (New Zealand) populations up to 21 years ahead. We demonstrate that predictions for individual survivor functions and other posterior summaries of demographic and actuarial interest are readily obtained. Our results are compared with other competing forecasting methods

Large Scale Multi-Label Learning using Gaussian Processes

We introduce a Gaussian process latent factor model for multi-label classification that can capture correlations among class labels by using a small set of latent Gaussian process functions. To address computational challenges, when the number of training instances is very large, we introduce several techniques based on variational sparse Gaussian process approximations and stochastic optimization. Specifically, we apply doubly stochastic variational inference that sub-samples data instances and classes which allows us to cope with Big Data. Furthermore, we show it is possible and beneficial to optimize over inducing points, using gradient-based methods, even in very high dimensional input spaces involving up to hundreds of thousands of dimensions. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on several real-world large-scale multi-label learning problems